In the world of fantasy baseball, the ebb and flow of starting pitchers' performance can be as unpredictable as the swings and misses of a batter's bat. This week, we're taking a closer look at the pitchers who have seen a decline in their 'stuff' and command since May 1st, and the implications this might have for fantasy managers. While some of these pitchers have been near-elite in previous seasons, their recent struggles raise questions about their long-term prospects. Let's dive into the details and explore the potential reasons behind these changes, as well as the strategies fantasy managers might consider.
Freddy Peralta: A Slipping Slider
Freddy Peralta, once a reliable starter for the Mets, has seen his command and stuff take a hit since May 1st. His four-seam pitch, which had a Location+ of 107 in April, has slipped to 103, and his curveball, once an elite offering, has declined to 100. This shift in command has led to a 4.23 ERA, a significant drop from his pre-May performance. The question arises: is this a temporary blip or a more permanent change?
Peralta's arm angle, which has fallen to 32 degrees, may be a contributing factor to the movement of his pitches. His four-seamer, which moves over two inches more toward his arm side, is still showing decent command, but his curveball command has been more worrisome. The curveball, primarily thrown to left-handed hitters, has been located on the outside of the plate, leading to a brutal .365 wOBA. Despite these struggles, Peralta's track record and above-average skills suggest that fantasy managers should remain patient.
Ryan Weathers: Command and Control
Ryan Weathers, a pitcher for the Yankees, has been dealing with injuries and command issues. His Location+ has declined since May 1st, but he has still maintained strong command on all four of his pitches. His changeup, with a 113 Location+, leads the way, but its command has been inconsistent, particularly when thrown higher in the zone. This has led to poor outcomes against right-handed hitters, who have crushed his changeup with a .376 wOBA.
Weathers' command of his sliders and sweepers has also been slightly different since May 1st, particularly against right-handed hitters. His four-seamer, which has been hit hard by right-handed hitters, allows a .429 wOBA, up from previous seasons. Despite these struggles, Weathers' command and control suggest that he is still a solid pitcher, and fantasy managers should consider holding onto him.
J.T. Ginn: A Sliding Act
J.T. Ginn, a pitcher for the Athletics, has seen a significant decline in his Stuff+ since May 1st. His sinker, which had a Stuff+ of 116 in April, has slipped to 107, and his slider, once a strong offering, has dipped to 94. Ginn's command has also been inconsistent, with his changeup being the only pitch with a Location+ above 100 since May 1st.
Ginn's slider has been effective against right-handed hitters, but his cutter has generated weak contact. His sinker, which he locates low and inside to right-handed hitters, has been thrown nearly three inches lower in the zone this season. Despite these struggles, Ginn's command and above-average skills suggest that he is still a viable option for fantasy managers, but caution is advised.
Will Warren: A Well-Commanded Pitcher
Will Warren, a pitcher for the Yankees, has seen a significant improvement in his Stuff+ and command since May 1st. His four-seamer, which has a Stuff+ of 105, and his curveball, with a Stuff+ of 117, have been key contributors to his overall Stuff+ jump. Warren's changeup, which generates plenty of downward movement and arm-side fade, has also improved, despite struggling to elicit whiffs.
Warren's command of all his pitches is above average, with his four-seamer, sinker, slider, and curveball all having above-average Location+. His sweeper locations have been nearly identical to right-handed hitters, but there has been a change against left-handed hitters, who have crushed it. Despite these struggles, Warren's skills and command numbers support his outcomes, and fantasy managers might consider acquiring him if possible.
